Kirill on a mission

RUSSIAN DIPLOMACY: ROLE OF ORTHODOX CHURCH

Is it the Orthodox Church that Putin is using in his new diplomacy?

For the uninitiated, ‘Patriarch’ Kirill, the newly elected Patriarch in Russia, is alleged to have been and to still be a KGB agent. He has been very successful and influential in diplomatic issues, more regional than global. He succeeded to lay down the foundation of Orthodox Church in Cuba and Venezuela, where he is alleged to have secret political dialogues with top level diplomats like Fidel Castro. He is also one of the richest Russians in Russia with a personal wealth over $4 billion. Compare that with the Pope: rich, yes; millionaire, surely; but billionaire? (Even the Vatican operates on a budget deficit these days; one guesses after the billions of dollars payouts globally on child abuse cases). For the initiated, Russian neighbours including Ukraine are not ready to accept Russia’s presence and domination in their territory. On a key multiple tier diplomatic level, Russia desperately needs to keep its existence and influence in the neighboring states for its economic benefit and to retain supremacy. Thus, as it has exhausted all possible options, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is now all set to launch another contrivance to resolve political and diplomatic issues with its neighbours – the Russian Orthodox Church. Putin is trying to use the Orthodox Church quite cleverly, with the recent visit of Patriarch Kirill to Ukraine evidence of the same. Analytically, the 10-day visit of Kirill to various churches in Kiev and other cities of Ukraine might not seem very successful at the political level on the face of it, but it seems to have laid down a strong positive foundation in the minds of the common Ukrainians with respect to acceptability of anything Russian. Religion, especially the Christian Orthodox faith, has been very influential in the region, especially in countries like Ukraine, Georgia. About 17.3% of the Ukrainian population is of Russian origin. In addition, the long history of Christian faith binds people of these countries in common terms. There are three sects predominantly in Ukraine; Kiev patriarchate with 50.4% followers, which is predominant in the Western part of the country backed by the President, Yushchenko. The Moscow patriarch is another with 26.1% having enough support of Russian government.

Finally, the Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church with 7.2%. This demographic picture is giving substantial support to Patriarch Kirill to put forward the Russian political agendas. For the Russian polity, some of Kirill’s recent initiatives have been witness to clear political cognizance. His recent statement that it’s very important to increase Russian speaking presence in EU bodies was one of his first political remarks as Patriarch; interestingly, this statement garnered enough support in the Russian polity. But what separates him from his quite normal predecessors is that fact that he is the first Russian Patriarch in known history to consider himself as the universal patriarch for the world in the Christian Orthodox faith. That is quite a gargantuan consideration, given the expanse he is trying to address. But as his Ukraine trip showed, he is not without his stable followers. Kirill is also trying to strengthen the current weak relation with Georgia. In addition, his recent statement that “there are no conflicts, even most cruel, [and] no human hostility that could ever destroy the church unity, including the unity between the Russian and Georgian Churches” caught the attention of the intellectual Georgian community. Common Georgians look forward to Kirill’s visit more positively in Georgia now more than ever. Kirill’s further attention to control food consumption for joy and save the world from ruin has increased his general popularity and exemplified his knowledge in world economics. His speech in Crimea to thousands of people including Russian and Ukrainian navy personnel urging them for a peaceful cooperation was meaningful. He said, “Keep the Orthodox faith! Keeping the faith means not only attending church but building good relations with people,” more broadly between Ukrainians and Russians. To top the brilliant effort, Kirill even met Obama recently where he talked about universal Christianity. Most importantly, Kirill now aims to visit Islamic countries in two years to convince them to support minority Christian groups through which he aims to strengthen relations with these countries, a job that he seems to be already succeeding in doing with Cuba and Venezuela. What plays to Kirill’s huge advantage is the fact that unlike Putin, Kirill is not given to using flamboyant words and giving veiled – and unveiled – challenges to unnamed adversaries, an art Putin seems to have ingrained even when he is fishing with Medvedev. Globally, when Kirill speaks, he is considered a stable, well read and knowledgeable intellectual, discussions with whom will always result in amicable interactions rather than virulent arguments. With his below the surface closeness to both Putin and Medvedev (who are both comfortable with his non-power-ambitions), it is also being conjectured that Kirill is being encouraged and goaded to visit troubled spots and entities with his overtly zero-political agenda. One has to realise that since the time of Mikhail Gorbachev – in fact, both before and after – rare has been the year when one has seen a sane, non-mafiosi (the allusion obviously is to Putin!) and non-military personality speaking on behalf of the Russian philosophy and movement. Ergo, Kirill comes with a huge premium and is adding to it with each day of brownie points gained. And today, Russia needs these points desperately. From threatening Chechnya and other Central Asian countries, to waging many wars against neighbouring states (the South Ossetia War in 1991-92 and war in Abkhazia in 1992-93), Russia has managed to escalate tension regularly in the region. Even in the 2008 battle against Georgia to ostensibly free South Ossetia and Abkhazia, thus making then independent states, Russia earned killing hatred reserved for few. Ukraine, as a key example, has been predictably disloyal and antagonistic in its affairs with Russia, as Russia has almost always used energy to threaten Ukraine. Ukraine, being a Russian neighbour, depends on Russia for its energy as 35% of its energy needs are met by Russia. Just after the split of USSR, Ukraine started witnessing oil and gas embargoes by Russia. As anti-Russian movement started rising in Ukraine, Russia suspended gas supply to Ukraine in 1992, 1993, and 1994. Russia also blamed Ukraine for the non-payment of fares and gas debts. The last decade exemplified how vulnerable foreign relations caused major oil disputes between them and in the region. The twenty first century also witnessed time and again efforts by Russia to control Ukraine and other eastern European nations that support Ukraine’s independence and anti-Russian policies. Ukraine, for its part, refuses to accept Russian supremacy. The history of Ukraine, which testifies the long struggle through which it gained its sovereignty from Soviet Union, enforces a patriotic zeal against Russia. Unfortunately for Russia, Ukraine is the most viable route of energy exports as 85% of the Russian gas delivered to Western Europe passes through Ukraine. The worry that Russia has is that some years later, if and when Ukraine develops alternative energy sources, Russia would lose the power of wielding the energy stick; a scenario which Putin knows could become inevitable. Add to this the fact that Ukraine doesn’t want Russian naval bases to be in its territory; and the treaty that permitted Russia to continue its naval base in Ukraine will expire in 2017. Ukraine has already warned Russia to withdraw its bases. Given all this, Kirill’s unique positioning and intelligent networking with stakeholder groups is nothing short of brilliant. If Putin is intelligent – which undoubtedly he is – Kirill should never be openly asked to support or reject any of Putin’s political manoeuvres. The fact is that if Kirill is allowed to simply do what he is doing best, Putin just might see his own popularity ratings soar even in Ukraine. Think about it; when was the last time you heard about a religious leader in either Chavez’s Venezuela or Fidel’s Cuba influencing public opinion with such power?